The Opening Bell Trade: Long the Dip or Short the Pop?
Dissecting my $MRO loss on Friday 1/22/16
I developed a long bias because the sentiment on oil seemed to reverse from bearish to bullish at last for Friday with everyone and their mother touting oil and oil related stocks and indeed oil was bouncing [and holding it's gap up] for the most part that day. So this lead me to believe that oil companies such as MRO would follow suit and at worse just gap up and go nowhere. Instead MRO faded 2 bucks or - 20% off its highs for the day at one point, something I totally didn't expect, which goes to show you that no matter what, the only thing you should trust is the actual price action of the stock because that's the only thing that's not really subjective unlike the opinions of CNBC or someone's twitter feed.
Now is this ALWAYS the case? Of course not, there's bound to be exceptions to these examples. But this is the stock market, nothing is absolute, however we should always take the higher percentage trade to maximize our chances of profiting. Even if a strategy yields a 99.9% success rate, there's still a chance you run into that 0.01% where it doesn't work out, just be mentally prepared for it and don't throw a fit and go on tilt if you implement a seemingly "impossible to lose" strategy and lose money once in awhile.